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SLEEPER AGENT METHODOLOGY

How Sleeper Agent turns football evidence into league-aware player value.

Sleeper Agent separates the player from the league. The base model combines market context with NFL evidence, then applies bounded adjustments for the scoring, lineup demand, replacement pressure, and roster format of the league you connect.

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WHY IT IS DIFFERENT

A ranking is more trustworthy when you can see what moves it.

Market context is a prior, not the answer

When a healthy mapped dynasty market baseline is available, it anchors the player near consensus while Sleeper Agent allows bounded football evidence to move the score. Missing or unhealthy market data falls back explicitly to the local model.

Football evidence stays inspectable

Age curve, NFL production, opportunity and role, injury status, draft capital, and player eligibility remain separate inputs so a final number can be traced back to understandable evidence.

League adjustments model demand

Team count, quarterback and Superflex demand, starter depth, flex demand, PPR, TE premium, passing touchdowns, first downs, and other supported settings can change replacement pressure and league-adjusted value.

DECISION SIGNALS

The model keeps these evidence layers separate.

Market prior

A healthy mapped dynasty ranking can anchor the starting point, but provider coverage, timestamp, identity mapping, and format are validated before it is trusted.

Player evidence

Age curve, NFL production, opportunity, depth role, injury status, and draft capital shape the intrinsic football score.

Replacement demand

Expected starters by position translate league size, Superflex, flex, and lineup depth into positional scarcity rather than using a universal multiplier.

Scoring context

PPR, TE premium, passing-touchdown scoring, first downs, points per carry, and other supported settings apply bounded league-specific adjustments.

HOW IT WORKS

From raw evidence to a stable league-adjusted value.

  1. 01Build an intrinsic player score from age, role, production or draft evidence, and availability.
  2. 02Anchor to a healthy mapped dynasty market ranking when one exists, with bounded deviation from the football model.
  3. 03Apply league-specific scarcity and scoring adjustments, then convert the result into a stable player value and ranking.
FAQ

Questions about the Sleeper Agent valuation model.

Is Sleeper Agent just copying consensus rankings?

No. A healthy external dynasty market can act as a baseline, but the local model retains independent age, role, production, draft, injury, scarcity, and league-setting evidence. If the market baseline is unavailable or fails health checks, the model falls back explicitly.

Why can the same player have a different value in two leagues?

Replacement demand changes with league size and lineup requirements. Superflex increases quarterback demand, TE premium changes receiving value at tight end, and deeper starting lineups can change how scarce usable starters are.

How fresh is the underlying data?

Core football production, identity, schedule, and Sleeper player data are refreshed on scheduled jobs; injury and practice data refresh multiple times on active report days; supported dynasty market formats refresh on a six-hour schedule when the configured provider is available. Failed refreshes preserve the last known healthy snapshot instead of replacing it with incomplete data.

Does Sleeper Agent hide uncertainty?

No. The model carries confidence, provenance, fallback states, source timestamps, and limitations where the supporting data is incomplete or unavailable. A value is a decision aid, not a guarantee.

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